Nacel Energy Corp. (OTC BB: NCEN)
Positive
Volatility Risk: High 12 month Price Target: $5.03
Date: May 19, 2008
Analyst: Waheed Hassan, CFA,
waheed@advisoryresearchllc.comMarket Data
Current share price (May 16, 2008) $3.89
Shares Outstanding 21.4mn
Market Cap. $83.3mn
Fiscal Year End 31 March
* Projections & estimates by the Analyst
Investment Highlights
Since our initial report dated Dec. 10, 2007, Nacel Energy is up 289%. The increase in the stock price
has largely been driven by successful execution of the business plan. NCEN which aimed to have
80MW of wind power capacity by 2010 is already in the process of developing 40 MW, primarily in
the Texas panhandle region.
•
Strategic Location: We note that two of NCEN’s key developments, Blue Creek and Channing
Flats, are in West Texas. We note that Texas is one of the fastest growing wind power market
in the US, as indicated by American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) 2008 Annual
Rankings Report (April 2008). According to the AWEA report, Texas tops among states in
both total and new wind power.
Source: AWEA
(PLEASE SEE RISK FACTORS ON PAGE 3 & DISCLOSURES AT THE END OF THIS
PAID FOR REPORT)
Company Update
ADVISORY RESEARCH
Advisory Research
Nacel Energy Corp. ADVISORY RESEARCH
www.advisoryresearchllc.com 2 May 19, 2008
Source: AWEA
•
Increased installed capacity through joint venture: On May 19, 2008, Nacel announced that it
had entered into a joint venture agreement with Ridge Partners, LLC, an established developer
of infrastructure in the Caribbean and Latin America. NACEL Energy and Ridge Partners
have teamed to develop 600MW of utility class wind energy. The Caribbean and Latin
American wind power generation projects will enable the companies to participate in the
global carbon offset market, providing an additional revenue stream.Apart from the new joint venture agreement, Ridge Partners LLC is also developing the first
phase of a $250 million bio-fuels feedstock plantation to supply 150 million gallons of biodiesel
by 2009. The 750,000 acre project is under contract with a Caribbean government, uses
only fallow land and does not displace any food crops or forested land.
• Operational Efficiency: Apart from having presence in the strongest growth Texas market,
NCEN is also focused on enhancing its technology platform to maximize efficiency of its
existing portfolio. On April 15, 2008, NCEN announced that it would deploy wind energy
measurement and assessment systems from industry leader NRG Systems, Inc. (NRG).
NRG is a leader in wind measurement and assessment technology, and produces advanced
systems, instruments and sensors that measure and analyze wind speed, direction and other
environmental data. More than 100,000 NRG installations are being used for wind energy
assessment and turbine control in 120 countries around the world.
• Management: Operational progress has been accompanied by strengthening of the
management team. On Apr 7, 2008, NCEN announced the appointment of Dan Leach as
Managing Director of Operations.
Prior to joining NACEL Energy, Mr. Leach served as a senior wind energy development
consultant for Duke Energy Generation Services Wind LLC, a subsidiary of Duke Energy
Corporation of Charlotte, NC. Since 1995, Mr. Leach has participated in all phases of the
development and construction of 21 Greenfield utility class wind power generation facilities.
Nacel Energy Corp. ADVISORY RESEARCH
www.advisoryresearchllc.com 3 May 19, 2008
As Managing Director of Operations for NACEL Energy, Mr. Leach would be responsible for
land acquisitions, power purchase agreements, project development, and construction and
controls.
Risks
• Nacel Energy is a development stage company and its ability to continue as a going concern is
dependent on raising additional capital to fund future operations and ultimately to attain
profitable operations. Such capital raise is likely to be dilutive for existing shareholders. As
such, Nacel Energy is a high-risk investment.
• The company is dependent on the top management for successful implementation and
execution of its business plan. Any departure of the top management could adversely impact
the company.
• There is limited historical financial information about Nacel Energy upon which to base an
evaluation of its performance as a wind energy company.
• In addition, investors should refer to other risk factors disclosed in Nacel Energy’s SEC filings
available at www.sec.gov and to important disclosures on page 16 of this paid-for research
report.
• Investors also need to be cautious about the liquidity and price volatility risk in Nacel
Energy’s stock.
Valuation
We have used comparable multiple valuation to estimate Nacel Energy’s target price. Given that the
company does not have historical financial data, all financial estimates are based on publicly available
management guidance with respect to future expected generation capacity. Moreover, we are lowering
our discount rate assumption from 45% to 35%, primarily due to the company’s progress in executing
its business plan and hence the lower execution risk.
Additionally, our new target price estimate is based on 180MW installed capacity by 2010, up from
80MW previously. The increase in installed capacity assumption is primarily due to the approx.
100MW of new capacity that Nacel would install as part of its joint venture agreement with Ridge
Partners LLC. Under the joint venture agreement Nacel and Ridge Partners would develop 600MW of
wind power over a three phased process, of which approx. 100MW would be installed in Phase 1.
Based on the revised installed capacity and lower discount rate assumptions, we estimate Nacel’s
target price to be $5.03 per share. As such, we maintain our Positive rating.
Comparable valuation
Company Name Ticker Mkt Cap
(US$mn)
9 May 08
Installed
Capacity
(MW)
Mkt
Cap/Installed
Capacity
Babcock & Brown Wind Partners BBW 1,031.94 3,187 0.32
Naikun Wind Energy Group Inc. NKW 92.64 320 0.29
Western Wind Energy Corp. WNDEF 73.32 34.5 2.13
Greentech Energy Systems A/S G3E 790.82 246.2 3.21
Renewable Energy Holdings Plc REH 63.16 47.4 1.33
Wind Energy America Inc. WNEA 22.97 73.9 0.31
Average 1.27x
Source: analyst estimates, Reuters Knowledge database, company websites
Nacel Energy Corp. ADVISORY RESEARCH
www.advisoryresearchllc.com 4 May 19, 2008
Target Price Calculation
Installed capacity by 2010 180MW
Valuation multiple, Mkt cap/Installed capacity 1.27x
Estimated Value in 2010 $227.82mn
Shares outstanding (post current financing transaction) 21.4mn
Estimated Value per share in 2010 $10.65
Present Value of Est. Value @ 35% discount rate $5.03 per share
Source: analyst estimates, Reuters Knowledge database, company
Sensitivity Analysis
Discount rate
20% 25% 30% 35% 45%
$6.75 $6.09 $5.52 $5.03 $4.20
Source: analyst estimates, Reuters Knowledge database, company
Company Background
Nacel Energy is engaged in the business of generating clean, renewable utility and community-scale
wind energy. The company was incorporated in the State of Wyoming on February 7, 2006. The
company subsequently changed its original name from Zephyr Energy Corporation to Nacel Energy
Corporation ("Nacel") on April 3rd, 2007. Nacel’s Board of Directors has authorized a total capital
stock of 50 million common shares. No preferred shares are authorized. Currently, 11,900,000
common shares are issued and outstanding of which 1,500,000 shares or 12.6% of the total issued and
outstanding, are restricted shares held by company management.
Business Overview
Nacel Energy is a development stage company with an emerging utility-scale wind power generation
business. Since the company’s inception, it has been primarily engaged in business development
activities, including; developing internal economic models and financial forecasts, performing duediligence
regarding development partners, investigating wind energy properties and project
opportunities and most importantly, raising capital funding.
The company’s 36 month growth and business plan calls for the identification and evaluation of the
economic feasibility and resource potential of wind energy properties, predominantly in Montana,
Wyoming, Colorado, New Mexico, and Texas, for the purpose of developing utility-scale wind turbine
power generation projects. During the development stage, the growth plan calls for the company to
focus its resources entirely upon concluding opportunities for financial participation in wind power
generations assets, principally through working interests in these projects, following a unique
“COMMUNITY WIND” model of development and using a proprietary capital structure developed by
the Company called WINDVESTTM.
Community Wind Model & WINDVESTTM
Community Wind is defined as utility-scale power development with a sustainable footprint (generally
less than 20 MW) and some local investment - one or more members of the local community have a
significant direct financial stake in the project (see “A Comparative Analysis of Community Wind
Power Development Options in Oregon” July 2004).
Nacel Energy Corp. ADVISORY RESEARCH
www.advisoryresearchllc.com 5 May 19, 2008
Nacel Energy plans to build profitable partnerships with local COMMUNITY WIND developers by
offering a model solution to two of their biggest obstacles – (1) the absence of a tax-efficient structure
to utilize Federal and State incentives for wind energy development, and (2) the scarcity of capital
(especially early-stage capital) to initiate new projects. Nacel Energy has branded the model
WINDVEST™ - its proprietary capital structure model and a process which enables the company to
partner with local wind energy developers and expedite their project timelines with early-stage capital
infusion.
Nacel Energy’s WINDVEST™ process begins with a thorough feasibility and financial review of the
local proponents wind energy project. A professional assessment of the wind resource potential of the
proposed site is completed. Proponents must demonstrate control of the land, whether by lease or
outright ownership. In addition, all necessary regulatory permits must be in place to build the project.
However, often the permitting stage, the most difficult in the case of large-scale wind energy
development, is one of the principal attractions of COMMUNITY WIND. With local proponents (for
example, a local electrical co-operative), the permitting process can be accomplished in months. In
contrast, a number of major utilities have encountered resistance to their wind energy developments –
even though those developments have been located in rural or agricultural areas. Lastly, the necessary
utility power purchase agreements (PPA) must also be in place or in process.
Following successful completion of the feasibility and financial review, Nacel Energy implements its
proprietary WINDVEST™ financial partnership structure which creates the ownership positions in the
project and facilitates capital-raising and generally improves overall project economics. For regulatory
reasons and to facilitate permitting, Nacel Energy assumes a minority non-working interest in the local
proponents wind energy project. A principal benefit of the WINDVEST™ structure is that it creates a
“securitization” of the Federal Production Tax Credit (PTC). The PTC is a significant source of
revenue for any large-scale wind energy project, but typically holds no financial benefit to
COMMUNITY WIND developers and their local proponents. It is this inability to derive a financial
benefit from the PTC, that is often the main economic obstacle to COMMUNITY WIND energy
development and one that Nacel Energy with its WINDVEST™ structure can resolve.
Rural Electric Co-op’s
Nacel Energy’s WINDVESTTM also offers a financial partnership model focusing on Rural Electric
Co-op’s for the development of community wind energy projects. There are currently 900 Rural
Electric cooperatives serving 40 million people in 47 States1. Rural Electric Cooperatives are not
eligible for the PTC, but are instead able to issue “Clean Renewable Energy Bonds” (“CREB&rdquo

– tax
exempt bonds enacted through legislation to encourage the construction of renewable energy projects.
Nacel Energy’s financing model is a unique hybrid senior debt offering consisting of a convertible
debenture component (for Nacel Energy’s minority equity stake in the project) and a CREB offering,
providing institutional investors attractive yields and tax advantaged income.
1 Source: National Rural Electric Cooperative Association “NRECA” website
Nacel Energy Corp. ADVISORY RESEARCH
www.advisoryresearchllc.com 6 May 19, 2008
SWOT Analysis
Source: Analyst, company
STRENGTHS
• Successfully funded the capital
requirement for the first phase of its
36 month development plan
• Community wind business model
reduces the risk of local opposition to
utility-scale wind energy development
• Wind power generation facilities, once
constructed, experience minimal
operating costs and has long 20+ year
life-spans
OPPORTUNITIES
• Demand for wind energy is estimated
to grow at average of 60% until 2030
(International Energy Agency)
• Wind turbines produce 180-times
more energy at more than half the cost
than its equivalent 20 years ago
(Global Wind Energy Council)
THREATS
• Supply shortages of wind turbines
from manufacturers such as GE due to
rapid industry growth
• Regulatory uncertainty – lack of
uniform regulatory framework for
wind energy among US jurisdictions
• Increased competition for prime wind
energy sites is increasing in Texas &
California
WEAKNESSES
• Wind power is a highly capital
intensive industry. Nacel’s growth is
constrained by its ability to obtain
debt and/or equity capital
• Wind power is intermittent power with
a generally accepted maximum of
20% contribution to grid power supply
in most jurisdictions
Nacel Energy Corp. ADVISORY RESEARCH
www.advisoryresearchllc.com 7 May 19, 2008
Disclaimer
Waheed Hassan is a Chartered Financial Analyst®
Mr. Hassan has worked as a Senior Research analyst with Indosuez W.I. Carr Securities, UBS
Warburg, and an affiliate of Merrill Lynch. He was rated amongst #1 Financial Sector research
analysts in The Reuters Survey of Global Emerging Markets 1998. Similarly, he was a member of the
#1 rated research team according to The Reuters Survey of Global Emerging Markets 1999 and
Euromoney Awards for Excellence 2000. He is a member of AIMR, and received his MBA with
Beta Gamma Sigma honor membership from Vanderbilt University.
Information, opinions or ratings contained in this report are submitted solely for information
purposes by the qualified professional analyst. The information used and statements of fact made have
been obtained from sources considered reliable but neither guarantee nor representation is made as to
the completeness or accuracy of the same. Advisory Research LLC. (formerly Investology Inc.) did
not conduct an independent due diligence to verify the accuracy of the information contained in this
report. No representation whatsoever is made by Advisory Research LLC. (formerly Investology Inc.)
Advisory Research LLC. (formerly Investology Inc.) accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or
consequential loss or damage arising from any use of this report or its content. Such information and
the opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This report or study is not intended as an
offering or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned or discussed. All investors
should conduct their own due diligence before making any investment decision.
Advisory Research LLC. (formerly Investology Inc.) received $10,000 from Before the Bell
Publishing for three quarterly updates.
The analyst hereby certifies that he does not own any shares in Nacel Energy Corp. Advisory Research
LLC. (formerly Investology Inc.) does not have any investment banking relationship with Nacel
Energy Corp.
Reprinting, reproduction, or copying of this report or any material contained herein is strictly
prohibited.
ADVISORY RESEARCH LLC. (FORMERLY INVESTOLOGY INC.) www.advisoryresearchllc.com
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