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Sie empfehlen ein Beitrag aus dem Thema: CGFI.... Neuer Goldplayer mit exzellentem Explorationspotenzial

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#125828 von  MIDAS Erstellt am: 10.03.08 23:36:46 Beitrag Nr.: 125828 Weitere Beiträge
Dieser Beitrag:

  • Reviewed in the context of advanced, new gold exploration technologies, for example
  • http://www.newmont.com/en/operations/exploration/technology/index.asp
  • Gold prices are now much higher than when CGFI’s properties were last worked
  • Gold in trading in the $970 range, up 50% in the past year.
  • Click for chart

    Consider CGFI’s optioned properties when they were last active and the price of gold at the time
    (1) Gold King, last active 1990 when gold was $380 an ounce.
    (2) Mogul, last active in 1965 when gold was still $35 an ounce (until 1972)
    (3) Mayflower, last active in the 1980’s, when gold averaged around $400

  • Consider historic production figures, by mine
  • (1) Gold King Mine: the best estimate for historic mine production from the Gold King Mine is 665,500 tons containing 0.471 ozs/ton gold, 2.39 ozs/ton silver, 0.71% lead, and 0.52% copper. This historic mine production predominantly occurred during the period 1890 to 1920.
    . In the period 1984 to 1992, Gold King Mines Corporation (formerly Gerber Minerals Corporation)
    conducted exploration activities at the Gold King Mine including re-opening old workings, extending workings, surface exploration mapping and drilling, underground exploration, mapping, sampling and drilling and other activities. Previously published reports listed expenditures by Gold King Mines Corporation of $9.7 million on the Gold King Mine during this period.

    (2) Mogul: the Mogul unit was operated intermittently from 1901 to 1965, producing an unknown quantity of base metal ore.

    (3) Mayflower Mine: Published historic production figures for the Mayflower Mine (also known as the Shenandoah-Dives Mine) for the period 1901-1957 are 4.5 million tons containing 520,000 ounces of gold, 12.3 million ounces of silver, 18,000 tons of copper, 47,000 tons of lead and 10,000 tons of zinc3. Some portion of this production may have originated from adjoining properties.

  • Gold extraction cost averages $238
  • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold
  • So the gross margin per ounce at today’s price would be is $971 less $238, or $733 per ounce on the average, or 75%
  • Option agreement and additional shares: the option agreement is based on CGFI spending money on the property, expected to be based on successfully attaining milestones.
  • In addition, CFGI expects to issue 10mm shares to the optionors, and assume 15mm more shares are issued for equity, which means total shares will be at least 122mm.
  • Valuation

  • For CGFI to be valued at $1.90 per share, then them market cap would need to be in the range of $280mm, before allowing for CGFI’s 80% share
  • And with a gross margin of 75% it is possible that net income could be in the range of 25% of revenue.
  • Therefore, the CGFI operation needs to generate $28mm of revenue per year to generate $7mm in income per year, based on the above assumptions, and then 80% would accrue to CGFI itself, or $5.6mm.
  • The stock could then sell in the $1.90 range assuming a P/E multiple of 40 (see below)
  • To generate $28mm in annual sales CFGI needs to process about 29,000 ounces of gold per year (at today’s prices), which seems like a reasonable possibility given the properties’ history and new exploration and gold extraction technologies

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